Welcome to a Saturday edition of NHL Predictions with us here at Last Word On Hockey. Today we present you the battle of the Canadian and American National Capital cities from the District of Columbia. Check out our statistical breakdown, analysis, storylines, and predictions for not just this one, but games all season long. Find out if we think the Ottawa Senators can continue to work on fixing their situation or if the Washington Capitals will keep up their decent start to 2025-26.
NHL Predictions with the Senators versus the Capitals
2024-25 Season Series: 1-0 (OT) Caps; 5-4 (OT) Sens; 5-4 (SO) Caps
Start Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
How to Watch: Sportsnet 360, MNMT
Location: Capital One Arena in Washington, District of Columbia
This is the battle of who won the Jakob Chychrun for Nick Jensen trade, you know, rather than the classic hockey rivalry of Canada versus United States of America. Last year it was a very even trade off, however, as we shall explain, this year it is less so. Also, let’s not forget Lars Eller returning to the city where he won the 2018 Stanley Cup and spent eight years all told.
The Capitals Perspective
Of course, this game is another example of ‘Ovi Watch.’ Alex Ovechkin hit the iconic 895 last year, surpassing Wayne Gretzky for the NHL’s all-time goal-scoring lead. Now, with Ovi sitting at 899, he sits just a single goal away from becoming the only member of the 900-goal club. Will he do it on Saturday Night Hockey? Not if Linus Ullmark and the Sens have something to say about it.
Washington is once again doing the little things right under head coach Spencer Carbery. The proof of that fact is that they are first in the NHL with a miniscule 1.75 goals-allowed-per-game. Last year the Caps were runners-up in the Presidents’ Trophy race. This year they are trying to reclaim that magic and prove it was no fluke. Currently, they sit fourth in the Metropolitan Divisional standings.
In terms of Chychrun’s play, he has done well. He has six points in eight games, and plays 22:43 of ice time a game. He doesn’t even lead the Caps defence in scoring. That honour belongs to John Carlson, with seven points, including a current five-game point streak. Impressive when you consider the Sens only have Pinto with more than six points.
The Storylines in Ottawa
For the Ottawa Senators, there is no shortage of storylines. But as we already premised the defence with Jensen, we will start there for this analysis. One disappointment for the Sens so far has been their second pairing. Last year, Jensen was exactly what the doctor ordered for Thomas Chabot. Chabot saw a resurgent season, and finished 19th in NHL defencemen scoring in 2024-25. Unfortunately, to start the season, we have not seen a repeat performance. Jensen is returning from offseason surgery, and it is possible it is affecting his play. It has impacted the collective defence group, who have been interchanging Jordan Spence and Nikolas Matinpalo, with the goal of trying to find some chemistry. Spence has four points in his last three games, and looks to stay hot when given the opportunity. However, it seems Matinpalo slots in today, in favour of a little more physicality.
Moving on to the forwards, and they are having problems scoring. Uh oh, that’s what forwards are supposed to do…you had one job. They are adjusting to life without Brady Tkachuk, that will last well into November, at least. Shane Pinto has been on absolute fire to start the season, so that helps, but without Tkachuk in the lineup, they need everyone to step it up. One player looking to ramp it up is Tim Stutzle. Whether it is a product of high expectations or inconsistent linemates, or whatever it could be, Stutzle got off to a slow start with just one assist through three games. He has tried to turn it around since with four points in the last five games. Therefore, he might just be ready to pop off. That would really help Ottawa’s offence as a whole.
Finally, we get to the goaltenders, yeah, you too. Ottawa currently sits 31st in the entire NHL with 4.25 goals-allowed-per-game. That’s not good enough. Now, it isn’t all on the goaltending. The forwards have been clutching the stick too tight, leading to bad transitional turnovers. Also, the defence, as a unit, hasn’t played near the level they did last year. As of print, we have an interesting expected goaltending matchup, with Linus Ullmark squaring off against Charlie Lindgren. To add our disclaimer, please hop on social media and check the very latest lineup news before locking in your daily fantasy team roster.
NHL Predictions
Washington plays a very stingy game and will make it tough for the visiting Sens. However, the Senators are battling tough early in the season to stay among the contenders of the Eastern Conference. Sens and Caps played close games last year, look for that trend to continue.
Prediction: Senators 3 – Capitals 2 (in regulation)
Prop Bets
To go along with our score prediction, check out a couple anytime scorers. We like Stutzle for the Sens. Meanwhile, for the Capitals, Tom Wilson has been going lately, so take him as well.
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
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