Derrick Henry is on pace to break the NFL’s all time rushing record, but can he sustain it?
Through nine years of his NFL career, Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry has been nothing short of prolific. He’s one of nine players to gain 2,000-plus yards in a single season, led the NFL in rushing twice, rushing touchdowns thrice and bludgeoned run defenses on his way to ranking No. 19 on the NFL’s all-time rushing yards leaderboard (11,423 yards). The gap between Henry and the top five rushers in NFL history is wide, but Henry obliterated the 10,000-yard barrier — and the 11,000-yard barrier in 2024. He’s 62.2% of the way to Emmitt Smith’s record (18,355). Is it sustainable? How does he stack up compared to the top five rushers in NFL history?
Top Five Rushers
- Emmitt Smith: 18,355 yards | 4,409 carries
- Walter Payton: 16,726 yards | 3,838 carries
- Frank Gore: 16,000 yards | 3,735 carries
- Barry Sanders: 15,269 yards | 3,062 carries
- Adrian Peterson: 14,918 | 3,230 carries
…
19. Derrick Henry: 11,423 yards | 2,355 carries
As with all career leaders, health is the driving factor.
“If [player] stays healthy for [allotment of time], they have a chance to break [leader’s] all-time [category] record.”
It’s Mad Libs, sports edition. It’s been that way and it will stay that way. The most recent iteration being Washington Capitals forward Alexander Ovechkin breaking Wayne Gretzky’s goal record. So, for all intents and purposes, we have to use the phrase for Henry.
“If Henry stays healthy for six or more seasons, they have a chance to break Smith’s all-time rushing record.”
Breaking Into the Top 5
Henry is 3,495 yards from unseating Peterson. And at his current rate of averaging 84.0 yards per game, he could do so in under 2.5 seasons. With him joining the Ravens, revitalizing him (weird saying that when he went back-to-back seasons with 1,100+ yards with the Titans in 2022-23), all odds are he can do so. Last season, Henry averaged 113 yards per game.
It’s fair to question how sustainable that is. But Henry’s finished more seasons averaging over 100 yards than not since becoming the starting back.
By the numbers, Henry’s achieved 76% of Peterson’s rushing total on 72% of the carries. He’s marginally ahead.
Going by season pacing stats, he’s behind — barely. After nine seasons, Peterson amassed 11,675 yards; a difference of 252 yards. But Peterson’s production plummeted after Year 9. The physicality took its toll. He played just three games in Year 10, and ultimately finished with 3,243 yards in his final six seasons (540 yards per season). All signs point toward Henry continuing his dominance.
Making the Podium
In third place with an aesthetically pleasing 16,000 yards is Gore, a beacon of consistency. The Inconvenient Truth produced nine 1,000-yard seasons and in his 16-year career went above 600 yards in all but one (599 in Year 15).
To take Gore’s place on the podium, Henry will have to mimic Gore’s consistency (which he’s done thus far). He’ll need six straight seasons averaging 762.8 yards, or another 102 games averaging 44.9 yards.
By the numbers, Henry’s achieved 71% of Gore’s rushing total and done so on 63% of the carries. He’s strongly ahead. But Gore’s career was built on marathon-like endurance and distance.
Going by season pacing stats, Henry’s blisteringly ahead. Gore finished Year 9 with 9,967 yards. Henry’s 1,456 yards ahead. Again, Gore’s career was not a sprint, but a consistent blacksmith hammer strike for 241 games.
Regicide for a New King
Henry may be named king, but the crown sits upon Smith’s head. On the throne of Mount Rush, Smith is 6,932 yards above. Eleven 1,000+ yard seasons. Four-time single-season rushing yards leader charging behind The Great Wall of Dallas, Smith lived a running backs’ dream.
To usurp Smith, Henry must average nothing short of greatness. For six straight seasons, he’ll need to average 1,155 yards. He’ll need 102 games straight of 68 yards. It’s no easy feat. Of Henry’s 136 career games, he’s rushed for fewer than 68 yards in 59 of them (43.4%).
That doesn’t mean he can’t. When Smith’s career was over, he rushed for fewer than 68 yards in 90 games (39.8%).
To balance it out, Henry has to have the higher highs than Smith. He’s done so. Henry has 10 games above 174 rushing yards. Smith finished with just two.
Going by season pacing stats, Henry’s behind by 1,143 yards. But Smith had far more carries by the end of Year 9 with 2,914 to Henry’s 2,355 (559-carry difference).
Like Gore, Smith was consistency. He was also volume. Smith finished with 4,409 rushing attempts. In second is Payton (3,838). The difference between Smith and Payton (571) is nearly the distance between Payton and sixth-ranked attempts leader Peterson (3,230).
To become the all-time rushing yards leader, Henry will need to be as dominant as he’s displayed for nine seasons. Doing so in the prime of your career is one thing. But Henry’s crossed the midway point and now must stave off Father Time with his signature stiff-arm, too.