Navy football is 7-0 for the first time since 1978, which is a tremendous accomplishment. The Midshipmen have done an impressive job of finding different ways to win and have all of their goals in front of them.
Navy beat Air Force in the first leg of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy series and is already bowl eligible. The Midshipmen own sole possession of first place in the American Conference and hold the pole position for earning the “Group of Five” berth in the College Football Playoff.
However, Navy must get through an incredibly difficult month of November in order to make the CFP for the first time in program history.
Navy faces an absolute gauntlet this month starting with Saturday’s game at North Texas. It then travels to South Bend, Indiana, to play Notre Dame before returning home to face South Florida. Closing out the real meat grinder of a November is a road game at Memphis on Thanksgiving night.
“We say that November is for the real ones, and the schedule is about to get real,” Navy coach Brian Newberry said after Saturday’s 42-32 defeat of Florida Atlantic. “We’ve got a lot of work in front of us and have to continue to get better to have a chance to win any of these games coming up.”
Navy is the underdog against North Texas and probably will not be favored in any of the next four games. So the Midshipmen will have to pull off a series of upsets to get through this month unscathed. Another factor going against the Mids is that three of the four are road games.
Everyone knew before the season began that the schedule was favorable for the months of September and October and extremely challenging in November.
Navy opened against Virginia Military Institute, a Football Championship Subdivision program. All its conference contests over the first couple months were against teams predicted to finish in the bottom half of the American.
That is exactly how it played out. Navy routed VMI, which is now 1-7. Its conference wins have come against Temple (5-3, 3-1), Rice (4-4, 1-3), Florida Atlantic (3-5, 2-3), Tulsa (2-6, 0-5) and Alabama-Birmingham (3-4, 1-3).
Temple, under the strong direction of first-year coach K.C. Keeler, is better than expected and that was Navy’s toughest league game. The Midshipmen needed a miraculous rally to pull out a 32-31 victory at Lincoln Financial Field.
Of course, the annual service academy showdown against Air Force is always a tossup, but Navy had the advantage of being at home. The Midshipmen escaped with a 34-31 victory in a wild, back-and-forth shootout.
Bottom line, the seven opponents Navy has beaten to date have a combined record of 20-35, while the four teams it will face in November have a combined record of 25-7.
That relatively weak strength of schedule is the reason why Navy is not ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 despite being one of only six remaining unbeaten teams in FBS.
“The schedule is what it is. We’re excited about the challenge and the opportunity,” Newberry said Monday during his weekly media session. “You’re right where you want to be. Every game is important right now and there is a lot at stake.”
First test in this November crucible is North Texas (7-1, 3-1), which boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the Football Bowl Subdivision. Led by quarterback Drew Mestemaker, the Mean Green rank No. 1 nationally with a scoring average of 46.4 points and No. 5 in total offense with 495.8 yards per game.
Mestemaker is coming off an incredible performance in which he set a single-game school record with 608 passing yards against Charlotte. Yes, you read that right: 6-0-8! For the season, the redshirt freshman has completed 68.2% of passes for 2,468 yards and 21 touchdowns.
This high-powered passing attack presents a significant challenge to a Navy secondary that has struggled most of the season. The Midshipmen rank 115th out of 133 FBS teams in passing yards allowed per game (256.6).
Navy is back on the road one week later to take on 12th-ranked Notre Dame (5-2), which has won five straight after starting 0-2. The Fighting Irish have averaged 42 points per game during that streak.
Simply put, Notre Dame is Notre Dame. Navy has not won a game in the annual series since 2016 and has lost the last two meetings by 37 and 39 points. History will be made as this is the first time Navy has ever played a night game at Notre Dame Stadium.
Winning on senior day at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium will be no easy task against a South Florida squad that was looking like the class of the American Conference until getting upset by Memphis, 34-31, on Saturday. Prior to that, the Bulls (6-2, 3-1) had been piling up the points and blowing opponents out.
Consider that USF went on the road and beat North Texas, 63-36, then came back to Tampa and manhandled Florida Atlantic, 48-13. The Bulls are led offensively by dynamic dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown and are averaging 40.3 points and 487 total yards.
USF showed its bonafides by knocking off Boise State (34-7) and Florida (18-16) in back-to-back games to start the season.
Navy closes out the month by having to play No. 25 Memphis (7-1, 3-1) at the Liberty Bowl on Thanksgiving night. This is yet another powerful offensive team as the Tigers are averaging 37.6 points and 439.1 total yards.
Memphis had a stunning slipup when it got upset by an Alabama-Birmingham club that had just fired its head coach, but put itself right back in contention for a berth in the American Conference championship game by beating USF.
Right now, Memphis is the only American team ranked in the Associated Press Top 25. Whichever team winds up capturing the American championship will be the leading contender to earn the Group of Five berth in the College Football Playoff.
“The [November] schedule is challenging, but the only thing we have to worry about right now is the one that’s right in front of us. We’ll take them one at a time,” Newberry said. “We’ve got a huge challenge this week against a really good, really improved North Texas team that is playing at a high level right now.”
Navy enters November with the best record among American Conference members. It will be remarkable if the Midshipmen emerge from this grueling month without suffering any losses.
Navy could afford to lose to Notre Dame and one of the next three conference opponents and still reach the American championship game depending on how tiebreakers go. Two losses would likely eliminate the Mids from championship contention and for a berth in the CFP.