The Washington Commanders traded Brian Robinson to the San Francisco 49ers, creating tons of fantasy football opportunities for veteran Austin Ekeler and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt. While Croskey-Merritt will inevitably see more touches and is arguably the biggest winner of the preseason, Austin Ekeler offers more upside and should be the player you target in drafts.
Draft Austin Ekeler Over Jacory Croskey-Merritt In Fantasy Football
Projecting Roles
Brian Robinson has been Washington’s lead back for the past three seasons, but this role has never been all that valuable in fantasy football. Last year, he finished as the RB29 in PPR leagues, rushing for 799 yards and eight touchdowns on 187 carries while hauling in 20 passes for 159 yards and no touchdowns as a receiver.
Basically, Robinson was an early-down back who was startable on weeks where he had a touchdown and a liability on weeks where he didn’t. He’s the type of player you put in your flex spot and hope for the best. A better player could earn more touches, but there’s no reason to believe Jacory Croskey-Merritt will be dramatically better.
As mentioned in a previous article, just about every metric out there suggests Croskey-Merritt will not be anything more than a role player at the NFL level. Whether it’s his unimpressive college tape, his seventh-round draft capital, late breakout age, or inability to dominate touches in college, he doesn’t profile as a starting running back.
Of course, head coach Dan Quinn’s opinion is the only one that matters, and he wouldn’t have traded Brian Robinson if he didn’t think Croskey-Merritt could handle this type of workload. While the rookie will earn most of Robinson’s vacated opportunities, he won’t earn all of them. Austin Ekeler isn’t the player he once was, but he’s still an adequate runner, and Chris Rodriguez Jr. has drawn high praise throughout camp.
Chances are, Jacory Croskey-Merritt will finish the season with roughly 150-175 carries, which isn’t enough to carry fantasy relevance on its own. He’ll need to start catching passes to be a weekly start in fantasy football, and Austin Ekeler isn’t relinquishing that role.
Floor Versus Ceiling
At his best, Austin Ekeler was arguably a top-three receiving back in the NFL. While those days are long gone, he’s still a decent threat out of the backfield. While he only caught 35 passes last year, his 72.6 PFF receiving grade was the 12th-best mark in the league. Croskey-Merritt, by comparison, never caught more than 13 passes in any of his five seasons at the collegiate level.
Could Jacory Croskey-Merritt finish the season with more fantasy points than Austin Ekeler? Absolutely. However, the rookie’s ceiling is functionally nonexistent, as he simply does not catch the ball. Even if Dan Quinn is correct about Croskey-Merritt and literally every other metric is wrong, the rookie will struggle to be anything more than a low-end RB2 with no receiving work.
Ekeler, meanwhile, is still a good receiver and an adequate runner. With Robinson gone, he’s the only proven rusher on the team. If Croskey-Merritt’s offseason success does not translate to meaningful action, Washington will have no choice but to make Ekeler a three-down back. Nobody should expect another top-four finish out of the former undrafted free agent, but that potential volume alone could make him a high-end RB2. Given their relatively equal costs at the moment, you should shoot for the player with the higher upside, and that’s Ekeler.
Main Photo: Amber Searls – Imagn Images
The post Fantasy Football: Draft Austin Ekeler Over Jacory Croskey-Merritt appeared first on Last Word on Pro Football.